The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that it has verified that demand for watching movies is still there under the influence of high-quality supply this year. Looking ahead, short-term suggestions focus on the Spring Festival program catalysis (expected to gather blockbuster movies, good demand for movie viewing), be optimistic about the continuous restoration of industry fundamentals in the medium to long term, and large domestic and foreign manufacturers have abundant reserves of high-quality content, which is expected to drive the general market trend upward, driven by both supply and demand. It is recommended to focus on 1) High quality content producers: Optical Media (300251.SZ) (starring in “Article 20”, “Nacha 2”, “Xiao Qian”, etc.); 2) Leading cinema and online ticketing companies: Wanda Film (002739.SZ) (leading domestic cinema), etc.

Matters:

According to data from Cat's Eye Pro Edition, as of 15:00 on January 1, '24, the New Year's Day program had a total box office of 1,389 billion yuan (including service fees). The total box office for the full year of 2023 was 54.921 billion yuan.

▍ The main views of Huacheng Securities are as follows:

The performance of the New Year's Day program was outstanding.

As of 15:00 on January 1, '24, the New Year's Day program had achieved a total box office of 1,389 million yuan (including service fees), a record high in the same period. Among them, the New Year's Eve (12.31) movie market was very popular, with single-day box office sales reaching 731 million yuan, second only to the single-day box office performance during the Spring Festival this year.

Looking at volume and price splitting: ticket prices have declined slightly, and market growth is mainly driven by the number of moviegoers. The average ticket price (including service fee) for the 2024 New Year's Day program was 41.95 yuan, down 5% from 23; the number of movie viewers was 33 million, close to the highest level in history, verifying the offline recovery trend.

On the content side, “Twinkle Twinkle Little Star” and “The Annual Meeting Can't Be Stopped!” Leading the way, each with its own characteristics.

As of 15:00 on January 1, '24, “One Twinkle, One Twinkle, One Star” and “The Annual Meeting Can't Be Stopped!” , “Golden Finger”, and “Stealth” achieved box office of 5.9/1.8/150 million yuan respectively, and CR1/CR3 market shares were 42%/69%, respectively. The average quality of the films had a fair reputation. Among them, there was no shortage of unique films. “One Twinkle, One Twinkle, One Shining Star” went viral in early marketing (1314 Snow Resort), with a pre-sale box office of over 300 million yuan. The final total box office is estimated to be 1,014 million yuan (Cat's Eye Pro Edition forecast), making it the highest-grossing film on New Year's Day in history.

Furthermore, “Can't Stop the Annual Meeting” had a good reputation after its release (Douban rating 8.1), and the final total box office is estimated to be 990 million yuan (Cat Eye Pro Edition forecast). Once again, it was verified that there is a strong demand for watching movies under high-quality movies.

The 23-year replay performance is remarkable.

In 2023, movie box office reached 54.921 billion yuan, with 1,298 million viewers. The average ticket price was 42.2 yuan (yoy +0.48%). The box office has recovered to 86% in '19, and the number of movie viewers has recovered to 75% of '19. The overall content supply this year was quite rich. A total of 620 films were screened throughout the year, second only to the number of films in '21. Among them, the Spring Festival program and summer program, which have outstanding content supply quality, all performed well, ranking second and first in the box office of the same period over the years, respectively.

Overall, the film market has recovered well this year, which fully confirms that demand for watching movies is likely to recover rapidly under high-quality supply, and lays confidence in the subsequent film market. However, there is still plenty of room to recover, including weekend programs and imported film performances.

Looking ahead to 24 years, we can still look forward to it. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the promotion of the Spring Festival program.

Looking ahead to 24 years, there has been no significant change in the supply and demand improvement logic. The industry is more motivated to start construction, large factories are rich in content reserves, and they are optimistic about subsequent continuous repairs. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the promotion of the Spring Festival program. It is expected that the best movies will gather. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the release of demand for movies driven by supply. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the subsequent schedule situation. The films already scheduled include “The Bear Came Out” (Huaqiang Fang Te) and “Mr. Red Carpet” (Huaxi Media, Ning Hao/Andy Lau).

In addition, large manufacturers are rich in reserves, “Article 20” (Shiny Media, Zhang Yimou/Ma Li), “Flying Spur 2” (Bona, Han Han), “Legend” (Bona, Jackie Chan), “Legend of the Condor Heroes” (Chinese film lead cast, Xu Ke/Xiao Zhan), “Volunteer Army 2” (Chinese film lead cast, Chen Kaige), and “Hot and Hot Hot” (Xinli Media, Jia Ling/Lei Jiayin), “Dunhuang Hero” (100 thousand thousand stars, Cao Dun Yu)) They are all expected to be screened, so it is recommended to actively monitor future developments.

Risk warning:

Movie box office performance fell short of expectations. The pandemic has repeatedly affected the pace of offline recovery and industry policy adjustments.