If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. In light of that, from a first glance at Chengzhi (SZSE:000990), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Chengzhi, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.026 = CN¥522m ÷ (CN¥25b - CN¥5.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Chengzhi has an ROCE of 2.6%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Chemicals industry average of 5.5%.
View our latest analysis for Chengzhi
In the above chart we have measured Chengzhi's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Chengzhi.
So How Is Chengzhi's ROCE Trending?
In terms of Chengzhi's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 4.9% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Chengzhi to turn into a multi-bagger.
The Key Takeaway
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 29% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
One more thing, we've spotted 2 warning signs facing Chengzhi that you might find interesting.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.