The Spring Festival is now just over a month away. In the future, we should focus on the progress of the Spring Festival film schedule. Production companies that are expected to release comedy films during the core schedule are expected to benefit, while focusing on theaters and ticketing companies that benefit from the steady recovery of box office.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that at the end of 2023, high-topic films such as “I Am a Mountain” and “Across the Sea of Anger” were released to begin mobilizing demand for movie viewers. Since then, many commercial films have been released, and the weekly box office continued to pick up month-on-month. Finally, on New Year's Eve on December 31, the box office broke through historical records. Both the New Year's Eve program and the summer program, which performed well before, prove that with high-quality commercial films, demand for watching movies can be effectively mobilized in line with important schedules. The Spring Festival is now just over a month away. In the future, we should focus on the progress of the Spring Festival film schedule. Production companies that are expected to release comedy films during the core schedule are expected to benefit, while focusing on theaters and ticketing companies that benefit from the steady recovery of box office.
CITIC Construction Investment's views are as follows:
The 2023 New Year's Eve box office hit a record high. According to Cat Eye, on December 31, 2023, the national comprehensive box office reached 732 million yuan, and the number of movie viewers reached 17.438 million, all exceeding historical records. The previous historical records were 537 million yuan and 14.16 million in 2020, and 505 million yuan and 145.25 million in 2017. Judging from the weekly comprehensive ticket, it has also recovered to an all-time high. The national comprehensive box office for the last week of 2023 was 1,604 billion yuan, with 385.22 million viewers, which is only lower than the same period in 2017 (1,606 billion yuan and 495.77 million visitors) and 2020 (2,130 million yuan and 56.218 million visitors).
Judging from the film, the first New Year's Eve film was the romantic film “One Twinkle, One Twinkle, Crystal”, which was sponsored and screened on December 30. The box office reached 551 million yuan in just two days. Cat Eye predicts the final box office will be 1,014 million yuan. The second-highest grossing comedy film “Can't Stop the Annual Meeting!” It was also sponsored and sponsored by Maogan Entertainment. It was screened on December 29, and grossed 193 million yuan over the three days of screening.
Starting at the end of November 2023, demand for movie viewing has steadily recovered. The first was the release of high-profile films such as “I Was a Mountain” and “Across the Sea of Fury” at the end of November, which began to drive a recovery in the weekly box office. Afterwards, commercial films such as the criminal theme “Three Teams” and the Hollywood branch “Aquaman 2” were released, continuing to drive the continuous month-on-month recovery of weekly box office. Until the New Year's Eve, the box office reached a record high. Combined with the 2023 summer program, a number of reality-themed commercial films were screened, driving the festival box office to break through historical records. We believe that both the summer program and the New Year's Eve program have proven that when the supply of high-quality commercial films is released in line with the popular schedule, demand for watching movies can be effectively mobilized.
A number of reality-themed films appeared in the top ten grossing movies, and there was a trend change in the genres of leading films. For example, “Give It All”, which ranked third, had a final box office of 3,849 million yuan; “In the Octagonal Cage”, which had a final box office of 2.207 billion yuan; “Solid as a Rock”, which ranked ninth, had a final box office of 1,352 billion yuan. The highest-grossing film was “Man Jiang Hong”, which was 4.544 billion yuan, the sixth highest grossing animated film in Chinese film history; the highest-grossing animated film was “Three Thousand Miles to Changan”, which was 1,824 million yuan.
In the future, we should focus on the progress of the 2024 Spring Festival schedule. Judging from the 2023 Spring Festival schedule, the schedule period is later than before the pandemic. The earliest and latest scheduled films were “Bear Cry: “Bear Cry” and “Exchange Life”, respectively. It was announced that there was a difference of 59 or 18 days between the schedule and the release; before 2020, the schedule period for Spring Festival movies was usually 3-5 months before the schedule. The 2024 Spring Festival program will open on February 10. The schedule is approaching. It is recommended to pay attention to the schedule of the film.
As of January 1, 2024, two movies have been scheduled for the Spring Festival, namely 1) “The Bear Came: Reversing Time and Space”. According to Cat's Eye, the media predicted a box office of 12-1.55 billion yuan; 2) the comedy “Mr. Red Carpet” starring Andy Lau. The media predicted a box office of 300-800 million yuan.
Among the reserve films, there are 3 comedy films: 1) the reality-themed film “Article 20” directed by Light Media and directed by Zhang Yimou; 2) the comedy “Hot and Hot” directed by Shiny Media and directed by Jia Ling (the Film Intelligence Service predicts a box office of 3.2 billion yuan); 3) the comedy sequel “Flying Fast 2,” directed by Bona Pictures and directed by Han Han.
Other reserves include: 1) “Legend”, a sequel to “Mythology” starring Bona Pictures; 2) the Chinese film “Volunteer Army: Attack of the Warriors 2” and “Legend of Condor Heroes”; 3) “Dunhuang Heroes” (previously scheduled Lunar New Year files; during this period, the media predicted a box office of 65 million to 400 million yuan). Follow the schedule for related films.
Risk warning:
Risk of increased audience sensitivity to ticket prices, risk of films not being screened as scheduled due to falling short of expectations, risk of competition in offline entertainment activities such as script killing/room escape/concerts, risk of online entertainment activities such as short videos impacting the film industry, risk of changing audience aesthetic orientation, risk of failure to review or review content of works, risk of piracy, risk of generative AI applications infringing on film and television copyright, risk of deep fraud, risk of artist morality risk, risk of insufficient corporate risk identification and management capabilities, and declining audience acceptance of animated films Risk. There is a risk that the brokerage business will cause the company to lose money due to the moral risk of artists.