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Orient Overseas (International) Limited's (HKG:316) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 30, 2023 19:18

There wouldn't be many who think Orient Overseas (International) Limited's (HKG:316) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x is worth a mention when the median P/S for the Shipping industry in Hong Kong is very similar. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Orient Overseas (International)

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:316 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 31st 2023

What Does Orient Overseas (International)'s P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Orient Overseas (International) has been doing a reasonable job lately as its revenue hasn't declined as much as most other companies. It might be that many expect the comparatively superior revenue performance to vanish, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you still like the company, you'd want its revenue trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. In saying that, existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the share price if the company's revenue continues outplaying the industry.

Keen to find out how analysts think Orient Overseas (International)'s future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Orient Overseas (International)'s to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 36%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 90% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to plummet, contracting by 38% during the coming year according to the six analysts following the company. The industry is also set to see revenue decline 18% but the stock is shaping up to perform materially worse.

In light of this, it's somewhat peculiar that Orient Overseas (International)'s P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. With revenue going quickly in reverse, it's not guaranteed that the P/S has found a floor yet. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Orient Overseas (International)'s P/S Mean For Investors?

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Orient Overseas (International) currently trades on a higher P/S than expected based on revenue decline, even more so since its revenue forecast is even worse than the struggling industry. It's not unusual in cases where revenue growth is poor, that the share price declines, sending the moderate P/S lower relative to the industry. We're also cautious about the company's ability to resist even greater pain to its business from the broader industry turmoil. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Having said that, be aware Orient Overseas (International) is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those make us uncomfortable.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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