O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ORLY) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for O'Reilly Automotive as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for O'Reilly Automotive
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
O'Reilly Automotive's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 15% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 74% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 10% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 13% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we find it concerning that O'Reilly Automotive is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of O'Reilly Automotive's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for O'Reilly Automotive (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than O'Reilly Automotive. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.