Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking further back, the 16% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Even after such a large jump in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may still consider Hub Group as an attractive investment with its 13.6x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Hub Group as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Hub Group
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Hub Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 37% decrease to the company's bottom line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 187% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 1.3% per annum over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 13% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we can see why Hub Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Hub Group's P/E close to the market median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Hub Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Hub Group that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Hub Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.