When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. Having said that, after a brief look, Hello Group (NASDAQ:MOMO) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Hello Group is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.15 = CN¥2.1b ÷ (CN¥16b - CN¥2.2b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Hello Group has an ROCE of 15%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Interactive Media and Services industry average of 9.0% it's much better.
Check out our latest analysis for Hello Group
In the above chart we have measured Hello Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
What Can We Tell From Hello Group's ROCE Trend?
There is reason to be cautious about Hello Group, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 21%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Hello Group becoming one if things continue as they have.
In Conclusion...
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 63% from where it was five years ago. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.
One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing Hello Group that you might find interesting.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.