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There's Reason For Concern Over Health Catalyst, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:HCAT) Massive 29% Price Jump

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 28, 2023 05:55

Those holding Health Catalyst, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCAT) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 29% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 9.2% over the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Health Catalyst's P/S ratio of 1.9x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Healthcare Services industry in the United States is also close to 2.1x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Health Catalyst

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGS:HCAT Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 28th 2023

How Health Catalyst Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, Health Catalyst has been relatively sluggish. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to lift, which has kept the P/S from declining. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think Health Catalyst's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Health Catalyst's Revenue Growth Trending?

Health Catalyst's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 6.7%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 62% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 10% during the coming year according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 12% growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Health Catalyst is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Health Catalyst's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Health Catalyst's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

When you consider that Health Catalyst's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Health Catalyst that we have uncovered.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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