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外盘头条:美国假日季零售销售增长远低于去年同期 苹果手表在美销售禁令生效 机构预测2024航空燃料需求复苏

External market headlines: The increase in retail sales during the US holiday season was far lower than the Apple Watch sales ban in the US in the same period last year, and the agency predicted a recovery in aviation fuel demand in 2024

環球市場播報 ·  Dec 26, 2023 15:53

The main headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning include:

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case Schiller Housing Price Index report, US housing prices rose 4.8% year-on-year in October 2023 compared to October 2022. This is an increase from the 4% year-on-year increase in September, and is also the biggest year-on-year increase in 2023.

The composite housing price index in the top ten cities rose 5.7% year on year, up from 4.8% in September. The composite housing price index for the top 20 cities rose 4.9% year on year, up from 3.9% in September.

The report shows that despite a sharp rise in mortgage interest rates in October, housing prices are still higher. Retail sales growth during the US holiday season was far lower than the same period last year

According to preliminary data from Mastercard SpendingPulse, US holiday retail sales are growing much slower than in 2022, as discerning shoppers look for great deals and promotions throughout the shopping season.

The results of the study showed that retail sales excluding automobiles increased 3.1% year over year from November 1 to December 24. The study used transaction data from Mastercard's payment network, as well as survey-based estimates of other payment methods. In 2022, a similar study by Mastercard SpendingPulse showed a 7.6% increase in holiday sales.

Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, said consumers “care a lot about spending money.”

After the review, the White House refused to reverse the ruling that the ban on sales of Apple Watch in the US came into effect

The White House refused to reverse the ban on sales of Apple's smartwatches in the US, failing to provide the tech giant with a resuscitation.

The US International Trade Commission (ITC) determined in October that Apple Watch infringed two Masimo patents related to blood oxygen monitoring. The White House has 60 days to evaluate the import ban, and the decision rests with US Trade Representative Dai Qi.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative said in a statement on Tuesday: “After careful negotiations, Ambassador Dai Qi decided not to reverse the ITC ruling. The ITC ruling became final on December 26, 2023.”

MicroStrategy is betting that Bitcoin's stock price will rise by more than 300% in 2023

MicroStrategy was founded nearly 35 years ago, and for most of its history, it was a little-known software company focused on business intelligence.

But in 2023, the stock surged 337%, making it one of the biggest gainers among US companies with a market capitalization of $5 billion or more, even surpassing Nvidia's 234% increase and Meta Platforms' 194% increase. Unlike its tech peers, who rely on revenue growth and market share growth to drive stock prices, MicroStrategy owes its investor appeal almost entirely to Bitcoin. The company began buying cryptocurrencies in mid-2020 and has since accumulated around 174,530 bitcoins. As of late Friday, these bitcoins were worth around $7.65 billion.

Wall Street investors are so fascinated by this story that the stock's rise this year was roughly double that of Bitcoin over the same period.

The agency predicts that demand for aviation fuel will continue to recover and prices will rise in 2024

US aviation fuel demand in 2023 continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The commercial aviation industry has begun increasing the production and use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to meet its net zero carbon commitments.

According to estimates by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average daily aviation kerosene demand in the US in 2023 peaked in the week ending June 23, reaching an average of 1.942,000 barrels per day. This was followed by 1.917 million barrels per day at the beginning of May. In 2023, the average daily aviation kerosene consumption in the two weeks mentioned above alone reached 1.9 million barrels. In 2022, the average daily aviation kerosene consumption in the US aviation industry reached or exceeded this figure for only one week. In 2021 and 2020, aviation fuel demand never reached this level.

According to the International Air Transport Association (International Air Transport Association), which represents about 320 airlines and accounts for 83% of global air traffic, the average cost of aviation fuel next year is about 2.7095 US dollars per gallon. This is above its forecast for 2023 of an average of $2.6643 per gallon.

Wrightson: The Federal Reserve's regular bank financing program may end in March next year

Wrightson ICAP said that the difference between the interest rate of the Federal Reserve's new financing instrument and the interest rate paid by the central bank to deposit reserves to institutions is widening, which indicates that the Federal Reserve will expire in March.

The Federal Reserve launched the Bank Term Financing Plan (BTFP) when the banking crisis disrupted the market earlier this year. The program allows banks and credit unions to borrow funds for no more than one year using US Treasury bonds and institutional bonds at face value. The capital interest rate is the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points. Currently, it is 4.84%, which is 56 basis points lower than the reserve interest rate.

Since the Federal Reserve turned to predicting further interest rate cuts next year earlier this month, OIS interest rates have fallen, and BTFP has also fallen, which has increased the appeal of arbitrage trading.

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