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Coherent Corp.'s (NYSE:COHR) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 26, 2023 05:00

It's not a stretch to say that Coherent Corp.'s (NYSE:COHR) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Electronic industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Coherent

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:COHR Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 26th 2023

What Does Coherent's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times have been advantageous for Coherent as its revenues have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If the company manages to stay the course, then investors should be rewarded with a share price that matches its revenue figures.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Coherent.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Coherent's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 26%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 76% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 2.2% as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 6.7%, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Coherent is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Coherent's P/S?

Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our check of Coherent's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If we consider the revenue outlook, the P/S seems to indicate that potential investors may be paying a premium for the stock.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Coherent you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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