With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.5x American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AFG) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
American Financial Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
See our latest analysis for American Financial Group
How Is American Financial Group's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, American Financial Group would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 242% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 9.3% during the coming year according to the six analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10%, which is not materially different.
With this information, we find it odd that American Financial Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
The Key Takeaway
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of American Financial Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for American Financial Group that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of American Financial Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.