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Arcplus Group (SHSE:600629) Sheds CN¥437m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Five Years

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 22, 2023 21:25

The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Arcplus Group PLC (SHSE:600629), since the last five years saw the share price fall 21%. Furthermore, it's down 14% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 6.1% in the same period.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

View our latest analysis for Arcplus Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Looking back five years, both Arcplus Group's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 1.0% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 5% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:600629 Earnings Per Share Growth December 23rd 2023

We know that Arcplus Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Arcplus Group will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Arcplus Group, it has a TSR of -17% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Arcplus Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 3% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Arcplus Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

We will like Arcplus Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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