To the annoyance of some shareholders, Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings Limited (HKG:1563) shares are down a considerable 28% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 86% share price decline.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.4x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
For example, consider that Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
View our latest analysis for Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings
Does Growth Match The P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 51%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
In light of this, it's curious that Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Bottom Line On Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings' P/E
With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings looks quite average now. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Alliance International Education Leasing Holdings that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.