Based on November 2021, in November 2023, the national express delivery business volume increased by about 20.4% year on year, the national express delivery business revenue increased by about 15.5% year on year, and single ticket revenue decreased by about 4.1%.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that in November 2023, Everbright Securities released a research report saying that in November 2023, the national express delivery business volume reached 13.64 billion units, up 31.9% year on year, significantly higher than the same period last year (1.2%); express delivery business revenue reached 124.14 billion yuan, up 26.9% year on year, changing from negative to positive over the same period last year (-9.0%); single ticket revenue was about 9.10 yuan, down about 3.8% year on year, down about 0.1% month on month. Based on November 2021, in November 2023, the national express delivery business volume increased by about 20.4% year on year, the national express delivery business revenue increased by about 15.5% year on year, and single ticket revenue decreased by about 4.1%.
The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
The growth rate of business volume in the express delivery industry rebounded in November 2023
In November 2023, the national express delivery business volume reached 13.64 billion units, up 31.9% year on year, significantly higher than the same period last year (1.2%); express delivery business revenue reached 124.14 billion yuan, up 26.9% year on year, and changed from negative to positive over the same period last year (-9.0%); single ticket revenue was about 9.10 yuan, down 3.8% year on year, down 0.1% month on month. Based on November 2021, in November 2023, the national express delivery business volume increased by about 20.4% year on year, the national express delivery business revenue increased by about 15.5% year on year, and single ticket revenue decreased by about 4.1%.
The average single ticket revenue for express delivery in Yiwu region/Guangzhou declined year-on-year in November '23
The average single ticket revenue of the express delivery business in Zhejiang Province was about 4.80 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.47 yuan, an increase of 0.12 yuan; the average single ticket revenue of the express delivery business in the Jinhua (Yiwu) region was about 2.68 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.15 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan; the average single-ticket revenue of the express delivery business in Guangdong Province was about 8.68 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 yuan, an increase of 0.65 yuan over the previous month.
The zero share of physical online shopping companies declined year-on-year in November 2023
In November 2023, the total amount of zero nationwide social networks increased 10.1% year on year, changing from negative to positive over the same period last year (-5.9%); online retail sales of physical goods increased 8.1% year on year, up 4.2 pct over the same period last year; the zero share of physical online shopping companies (online retail sales of physical goods/zero total of the national community) was 34.6%, down 0.62 pct year on year, and up 5.56 pct month on month.
Overall, offline consumption continues to recover, and demand for online shopping remains stable. Although the zero share of physical online shopping agencies declined year-on-year in November, it is still at an all-time high, indicating that online shopping demand is still quite resilient. If the same period in '21 is used as a base, the growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods declined markedly in June and July '23, reflecting the negative impact of declining economic growth on online shopping demand. However, the growth rate in August and September has begun to improve markedly. Although the combined growth rate in October and November declined, it is still at a high level.
In November '23, courier companies' single ticket revenue continued to decline year on year
In November '23, the monthly business volume of SF Express, Yunda, Yuantong, and Shentong increased by 24.1%, 30.4%, 33.0%, and 49.2% (excluding Fengwang), 30.4%, 33.0%, and 49.2% (except SF and Yunda, the growth rate of other companies was higher than the industry average growth rate of 31.9%), 2.5%, 24.0%, and 52.5% respectively over the same period in '21; SF, Yunda, Yuantong, and Shentong's market shares were about 8.6%, 14.1%, 15.9%, 13.9%, and +2%, respectively., - 0.0, +0.2, -0.7 pct, with year-on-year changes of -0.5 (excluding Fengwang), -0.2, +0.1, and +1.5 pct, respectively. In November 2023, the average monthly single ticket revenue of SF Express, Yunda, Yuantong, and Shentong was 15.62 yuan, 2.38 yuan, 2.46 yuan, and 2.20 yuan, respectively, with changes of -0.65, +0.10, +0.08, and +0.09 yuan, respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.69 (excluding Fengwang), 0.50, 0.25, and 0.42 yuan respectively. Overall, the single ticket revenue of Tongda express delivery companies continued to decline year on year, and market competition is still fierce. Combining the above volume and price factors, in November '23, SF, Yunda, Yuantong, and Shentong express business revenue increased by 16.8%, 7.6%, 20.5%, and 25.4%, respectively, compared to the same period in '22. The growth rates increased 7.2, 11.3, 8.0, and 8.5 pct respectively from October '23, and 20.0, 12.3, 22.4, and 16.5 pct, respectively. Based on November '21, revenue from SF Express, Yunda, Yuantong, and Shentong Express increased by 13.0%, 2.5%, 18.2%, and 36.5%, respectively, year-on-year in November '23.
Risk analysis: The declining economic growth rate led to a decline in express delivery demand; e-commerce growth fell short of market expectations, and the growth rate of express delivery demand declined; the penetration rate of online shopping increased slowly; competition in the express delivery industry exceeded expectations, and single ticket revenue fell sharply.