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Getting In Cheap On Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Unlikely

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 20, 2023 09:23

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 45.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Alarm.com Holdings certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Alarm.com Holdings

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGS:ALRM Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry December 20th 2023
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Alarm.com Holdings.

Is There Enough Growth For Alarm.com Holdings?

Alarm.com Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 44% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 12% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 25% during the coming year according to the eight analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10%.

In light of this, it's alarming that Alarm.com Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Alarm.com Holdings' P/E

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Alarm.com Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Alarm.com Holdings you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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