Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Irish Continental Group plc (LON:ICGC)?

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Irish Continental Group (LON:ICGC) has had a rough month with its share price down 5.5%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Irish Continental Group's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Irish Continental Group

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Irish Continental Group is:

22% = €58m ÷ €263m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.22.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Irish Continental Group's Earnings Growth And 22% ROE

To begin with, Irish Continental Group has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Even when compared to the industry average of 22% the company's ROE is pretty decent. As you might expect, the 16% net income decline reported by Irish Continental Group is a bit of a surprise. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

However, when we compared Irish Continental Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 49% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth
LSE:ICGC Past Earnings Growth December 19th 2023

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Irish Continental Group fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Irish Continental Group Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 42% (or a retention ratio of 58%) which is pretty normal, Irish Continental Group's declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, Irish Continental Group has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Irish Continental Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. While we won't completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. Our risks dashboard would have the 4 risks we have identified for Irish Continental Group.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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