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Investing in Open Text (NASDAQ:OTEX) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 47% Gain

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 18, 2023 13:53

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. For example, the Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ:OTEX) share price is up 44% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 22% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Zooming out, the stock is actually down 8.4% in the last three years.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

See our latest analysis for Open Text

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Open Text was able to grow EPS by 135% in the last twelve months. This EPS growth is significantly higher than the 44% increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market isn't as excited about Open Text as it was before. This could be an opportunity.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:OTEX Earnings Per Share Growth December 18th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on Open Text's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Open Text, it has a TSR of 47% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Open Text has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 47% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 8% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Open Text has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

Open Text is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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