With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.5x Ubiquiti Inc. (NYSE:UI) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
The earnings growth achieved at Ubiquiti over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for Ubiquiti
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Ubiquiti's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 20%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 2.6% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Ubiquiti is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Ubiquiti currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You need to take note of risks, for example - Ubiquiti has 4 warning signs (and 3 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Ubiquiti. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.