China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings Limited's (HKG:464) 46% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 17, 2023 21:00

Despite an already strong run, China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings Limited (HKG:464) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 46% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 62%.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Consumer Durables industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may consider China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings as a stock probably not worth researching with its 2.1x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings

SEHK:464 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 18th 2023

How Has China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings Performed Recently?

For instance, China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 42%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 67% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 34% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The large bounce in China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings' shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with China Overseas Nuoxin International Holdings.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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