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Optimistic Investors Push Linhai Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600099) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 15, 2023 17:10

Linhai Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600099) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 23% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking LinhaiLtd is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.7x, considering almost half the companies in China's Auto industry have P/S ratios below 2.1x. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for LinhaiLtd

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600099 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 15th 2023

What Does LinhaiLtd's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at LinhaiLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on LinhaiLtd will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, LinhaiLtd would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 10%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 26% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 46% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that LinhaiLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On LinhaiLtd's P/S

LinhaiLtd's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that LinhaiLtd currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with LinhaiLtd, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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