The Federal Reserve is bound to cut interest rates next year. Zheng Huaiwu, head of China and Hong Kong research at Galaxy Lianchang Securities, said that Fed Chairman Powell's remarks indicated that members of the Federal Council discussed interest rate cuts during the meeting, raising the possibility of cutting interest rates in March next year to 77%, and that interest rates will be cut by 0.75% throughout the year. Based on the fall in US interest rates, I believe Hong Kong interest rates will follow, supporting the decline in Hong Kong property prices. It is expected that property prices in Hong Kong will fall by 0% to 3% next year.
Zheng Huaiwu believes that under the joint exchange system, the trend of interest rates in Hong Kong is in line with US interest rates. In the face of positive interest rate prospects, in addition to the Hong Kong government's aggressive moves to relax the property market, it is expected that it will stimulate demand from mainland people. At the same time, the return on residential rent will help bring support to Hong Kong property prices and real estate stock prices, maintain Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) as the first choice for developer stocks, and also favors the trend of higher dividends (00823). If you are looking for high-beta stocks, New World Development (00017) and Henkel Properties (00012) can also be considered.
Furthermore, as of the end of November this year, Hong Kong has attracted about 200,000 specialist applications, of which 80,000 have arrived in Hong Kong. It is expected that these newcomers and those already residing in Hong Kong (over 300,000 people) will all become new demands in the Hong Kong housing market.