One of the frustrations of investing is when a stock goes down. But no-one can make money on every call, especially in a declining market. While the Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000528) share price is down 11% in the last three years, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -4.2%. That's better than the market which declined 12% over the last three years.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
View our latest analysis for Guangxi Liugong Machinery
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the three years that the share price fell, Guangxi Liugong Machinery's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 17% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 4% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Guangxi Liugong Machinery has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Guangxi Liugong Machinery will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Guangxi Liugong Machinery the TSR over the last 3 years was -4.2%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Guangxi Liugong Machinery shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 7.7% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 1.8% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Guangxi Liugong Machinery is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.