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Some Confidence Is Lacking In Alpha Professional Holdings Limited (HKG:948) As Shares Slide 33%

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 12, 2023 17:03

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Alpha Professional Holdings Limited (HKG:948) shares are down a considerable 33% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 75% share price decline.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Alpha Professional Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.5x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Electronic industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for Alpha Professional Holdings

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:948 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 12th 2023

What Does Alpha Professional Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For instance, Alpha Professional Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Alpha Professional Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Alpha Professional Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 52% decrease to the company's top line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 37% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Alpha Professional Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Following Alpha Professional Holdings' share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Alpha Professional Holdings' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Alpha Professional Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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