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The Past Year for Postal Savings Bank of China (HKG:1658) Investors Has Not Been Profitable

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 7, 2023 21:48

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. For example, the Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. (HKG:1658) share price is down 23% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 5.6%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 17% in the last three years.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

View our latest analysis for Postal Savings Bank of China

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unhappily, Postal Savings Bank of China had to report a 1.8% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 23% share price fall. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 3.99.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:1658 Earnings Per Share Growth December 8th 2023

Dive deeper into Postal Savings Bank of China's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Postal Savings Bank of China's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Postal Savings Bank of China, it has a TSR of -19% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Postal Savings Bank of China shareholders are down 19% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 5.6%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.2% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Postal Savings Bank of China better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Postal Savings Bank of China that you should be aware of.

Of course Postal Savings Bank of China may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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