Jinwu Financial News | The bank expects passenger car sales in China to increase 5.6%/2.0% year on year in 2023/2024, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise to 33.8%/44.6% in 2023/2024. The bank expects automakers to maintain high discount levels in 2024 to promote and remove inventory, and the price war will become normalized.
Intensive implementation of autonomous driving policies is expected to drive the rapid development of intelligent driving in China. The bank believes that Huawei's heavy perception light map smart driving technology route is likely to become mainstream. Many car companies have announced that they will implement the multi-city NOA function in urban areas in the second half of 2023, which will benefit industrial chains related to intelligent driving.
In the first 10 months of 2023, the growth rate of China's automobile exports was strong, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter. The bank expects to achieve a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% for the full year of 2023, with vehicle exports exceeding 5.1 million units; the forecast for 2024 is that it will still achieve a year-on-year growth rate of 20-25%.
The bank believes that as a leader in the field of new energy vehicles, BYD (01211/purchase) export sales will maintain a high growth rate. Furthermore, the bank believes that the acceleration of the transformation of the Great Wall (02333/purchase) will lead to an increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, which will be a key catalyst for the company's stock price. Among the new forces, the bank is still optimistic about the ideal (02015/purchase) pace of new cars in 2024.