H.C. Wainwright analyst Edward White maintained a Buy rating on Valneva (VALN – Research Report) today and set a price target of $26.00.
Edward White’s Buy rating for Valneva’s stock is grounded in a combination of promising clinical data and strong market potential for the company’s chikungunya vaccine, Ixchiq (VLA1553). The vaccine demonstrated a high seroresponse rate that persisted for 24 months, which met the primary endpoint of the study. Additionally, the FDA’s accelerated approval and the potential value of the priority review voucher enhance the investment appeal of Valneva’s stock.
Moreover, White’s valuation takes into account revenue forecasts for Ixchiq and a probability-adjusted royalty estimate for another product in Valneva’s pipeline, VLA15, which is being developed for Lyme disease. The financial model includes a net present value calculation through 2028, applying a 100% probability of success for Ixchiq and a 75% probability for VLA15, with multiples in line with industry peers. The anticipation of significant revenue growth for Ixchiq by 2028 further supports the Buy recommendation, despite the acknowledgment of various risks associated with commercialization, regulatory hurdles, and financial concerns.
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Valneva (VALN) Company Description:
Valneva SE is a vaccine company focused on developing life-saving vaccines. Its portfolio includes two vaccines for travellers; one for the prevention of Japanese encephalitis (IXIARO) and the second (DUKORAL) for the prevention of cholera and diarrhoea. The segments of the group are Commercialized vaccines which relate to marketed vaccines, the group’s vaccines IXIARO/JESPECT, DUKORAL, and third-party products; Vaccine candidates which relate to research and development programs to generate new approvable products to generate future cash flows from product sales through partnering with pharmaceutical companies; and Technologies and services which relates to services and inventions at a commercialization stage. The group is based in France and operates internationally.
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