Recent concerns have arisen about the reliability of market-moving statistics such as inflation and job data. The reported figures, it seems, might not accurately reflect the economic reality.
What Happened: Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm expressed concern about the situation. "They're not giving us an accurate picture. And again, where one would start to see this first is the precision of the estimates slips, and you get movements from months to months that aren't reality," she said, reported Business Insider.
Sahm's comments highlight the significant decline in the response rates for surveys tracking key economic indicators. The consumer price index survey response rate dropped from 67% in 2016 to 53% in 2023, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Similarly, response rates for job opening surveys have plummeted from 66% to 31% over the same period. These falling rates are causing unease in markets that rely on these statistics to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move.
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Goldman Sachs highlighted in a recent report that these falling response rates can amplify uncertainty about the economy. It pointed out that job openings have been revised by an average of 180,000 over the last few years, which is more than triple the typical revision six years ago.
Sahm cautioned investors from overreacting to the market uncertainties.
"Don't overreact to some sharp turn, because it might not be real or it could turn back really fast," she said.
Despite the decline in response rates, government statistics are still regarded as the highest quality data available. Gerald Perrins, a top official overseeing consumer price data at BLS, reassured that "our response rates are relatively high considering the large sample sizes that we do."
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