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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL) Stock Falls 13% in Past Week as Five-year Earnings and Shareholder Returns Continue Downward Trend

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 1, 2023 07:48

We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But unfortunately, some companies simply don't succeed. For example, after five long years the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) share price is a whole 62% lower. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 41% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 17% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

After losing 13% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

See our latest analysis for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 18% each year. This change in EPS is remarkably close to the 17% average annual decrease in the share price. This suggests that market participants have not changed their view of the company all that much. So it's fair to say the share price has been responding to changes in EPS.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:CBRL Earnings Per Share Growth December 1st 2023

Dive deeper into Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, it has a TSR of -54% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 13% in the last year, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store shareholders lost 38% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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