US GDP Growth In Q3 Tops Expectations, Highest Since Q4 2021
US GDP Growth In Q3 Tops Expectations, Highest Since Q4 2021
The latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveals that the U.S. economy displayed robust growth in the third quarter of 2023, surpassing initial estimates and posting the strongest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021.
經濟分析局的最新報告顯示，美國經濟在2023年第三季度表現出強勁增長，超過了初步預期，創下了自2021年第四季度以來最強勁的擴張。
The second estimate indicates that the annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 stood at 5.2%, outpacing the preliminary figure of 5%.
第二項估計表明，2023年第三季度的年化GDP增長率爲5.2％，超過了5％的初步數字。
Key Revisions To Q3 GDP
對第三季度國內生產總值的關鍵修訂
One of the notable revisions in this report was in nonresidential investment, which was originally estimated to have fallen by 0.1%. However, it was updated to show a surprising 1.3% increase.
該報告中值得注意的修正之一是非住宅投資，最初估計非住宅投資下降了0.1％。但是，它已更新，顯示出驚人的1.3％的增長。
This upward revision can be attributed to a smaller decline in equipment (-3.5% compared to the initial estimate of -3.8%) and a remarkable surge of 6.9% in structures (versus the initial estimate of 1.6%), led by commercial and health care (mainly warehouses).
這種向上修正可以歸因於在商業和醫療保健（主要是倉庫）的帶動下，設備下降幅度較小（-3.5％，而最初估計爲-3.8％），建築物顯著激增6.9％（而最初估計爲1.6％）。
Furthermore, the residential investment sector exhibited stronger signs of growth. It recorded a growth rate of 6.2%, significantly higher than the initially anticipated 3.9%, marking its first positive growth in nearly two years.
此外，住宅投資行業表現出更強勁的增長跡象。它的增長率爲6.2％，大大高於最初預期的3.9％，這是近兩年來的首次正增長。
Private inventories also made a significant contribution to the overall growth, adding 1.4 percentage points to the GDP, surpassing the previous estimate of 1.32 percentage points. Government spending experienced faster growth as well, expanding by 5.5% compared to the earlier estimate of 4.6%.
私人庫存也爲整體增長做出了重大貢獻，使國內生產總值增加了1.4個百分點，超過了先前估計的1.32個百分點。政府支出也實現了更快的增長，增長了5.5％，而先前估計的4.6％。
Consumer spending, although slightly lower than the preliminary estimate (3.6% versus 4%), still posted its most substantial gain since Q4 2021. The moderation in consumer spending was primarily attributed to a slowdown in services spending. Exports surged by 6%, albeit slightly below the initial estimate of 6.2%, while imports increased at a slower rate, growing by 5.2% compared to the initial estimate of 5.7%.
儘管消費者支出略低於初步估計（3.6％對4％），但仍創下了自2021年第四季度以來的最大增幅。消費者支出的放緩主要歸因於服務支出放緩。出口激增了6％，儘管略低於最初估計的6.2％，而進口增長速度較慢，與最初估計的5.7％相比增長了5.2％。
The acceleration in GDP for Q3 2023, when compared to the previous quarter, can be attributed to increased consumer spending, private inventory investment, and a notable uptick in exports.
與上一季度相比，2023年第三季度GDP的加速可以歸因於消費者支出的增加、私人庫存投資和出口的顯著增長。
Market Reactions: Dollar Sees Some Respite, Treasury Yields Stay Flat
市場反應：美元出現喘息機會，美國國債收益率保持平穩
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP), reacted positively to the upward revision in GDP figures.
景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）追蹤的美元指數（DXY）對國內生產總值數據的向上修正反應積極。
However, the dollar index remains below the 103 level, which was last seen in mid-August.
但是，美元指數仍低於103水平，該水平最後一次出現在8月中旬。
Treasury yields were relatively stable, with the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, tracked by the US 10 Year Treasury Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), trading at 4.30% on Wednesday.
美國國債收益率相對穩定，美國10年期國債ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UTEN）追蹤的10年期美國國債收益率週三交易價格爲4.30％。
According to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool, market participants currently assign a 77% chance of a Fed rate cut occurring as early as May 2024, and they are currently factoring in five rate cuts by December 2024 at a 52% probability.
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的美聯儲觀察工具，市場參與者目前認爲美聯儲最早在2024年5月降息的可能性爲77％，他們目前將到2024年12月降息五次的可能性考慮在內，概率爲52％。
Read now: Bill Ackman Bets On Potential Fed Interest Rate Cut As Soon As Q1 Next Year
立即閱讀： 比爾·阿克曼押注美聯儲可能最快在明年第一季度降息
Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock