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Is Goertek (SZSE:002241) A Risky Investment?

Is Goertek (SZSE:002241) A Risky Investment?

歌爾科技(深圳證券交易所:002241)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/28 18:16

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Goertek Inc. (SZSE:002241) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李璐對此毫不掩飾,他說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因爲債務超負荷可能導致破產。與許多其他公司一樣,Goertek Inc.(SZSE:002241)也使用債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時會成爲問題?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以用新的資本或自由現金流還清債務。資本主義的重要部分是 “創造性破壞” 的過程,在這個過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務可能是企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。

See our latest analysis for Goertek

查看我們對 Goertek 的最新分析

What Is Goertek's Net Debt?

歌爾泰克的淨負債是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Goertek had CN¥13.6b of debt, up from CN¥12.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥13.3b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥342.2m.

如下所示,截至2023年9月底,歌爾有136億元人民幣的債務,高於去年同期的125億元人民幣。點擊圖片了解更多詳情。但是,由於其現金儲備爲133億元人民幣,其淨負債較少,約爲3.422億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002241 Debt to Equity History November 28th 2023
SZSE: 002241 債權與股權歷史記錄 2023 年 11 月 28 日

How Healthy Is Goertek's Balance Sheet?

歌爾資產負債表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Goertek had liabilities of CN¥38.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥8.18b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥13.3b as well as receivables valued at CN¥17.3b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥16.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根據上次公佈的資產負債表,歌爾在12個月內到期的負債爲388億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲81.8億元人民幣。爲了抵消這些債務,它有133億元人民幣的現金以及價值173億元人民幣的應收賬款,將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出164億元人民幣。

Goertek has a market capitalization of CN¥62.8b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Carrying virtually no net debt, Goertek has a very light debt load indeed. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Goertek can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

歌爾泰克的市值爲628億元人民幣,因此,如果有需要,它很可能會籌集資金來改善資產負債表。但是我們一定要睜大眼睛,看看有跡象表明其債務帶來了太大風險。歌爾幾乎沒有淨負債,債務負擔確實很輕。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但最終,該業務的未來盈利能力將決定歌爾能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你專注於未來,你可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

In the last year Goertek wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 5.1%, to CN¥105b. That rate of growth is a bit slow for our taste, but it takes all types to make a world.

去年,歌爾沒有按息稅前利潤水平實現盈利,但收入成功增長了5.1%,達到1050億元人民幣。就我們的口味而言,這種增長速度有點慢,但是創造一個世界需要所有類型。

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Importantly, Goertek had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost CN¥1.1b at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. We would feel better if it turned its trailing twelve month loss of CN¥1.2b into a profit. So we do think this stock is quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Goertek is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

重要的是,歌爾去年出現了利息稅前收益(EBIT)虧損。事實上,它在息稅前利潤水平上損失了11億元人民幣。考慮到除了上述負債外,我們對公司應該使用如此多的債務沒有太大信心。坦率地說,我們認爲資產負債表遠非匹配,儘管隨着時間的推移可能會有所改善。如果它將過去十二個月的12億元人民幣的虧損轉化爲利潤,我們會感覺好些。因此,我們確實認爲這隻股票風險很大。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中——遠非如此。請注意,Goertek在我們的投資分析中顯示了1個警告信號,你應該知道...

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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