The analysts covering Chervon Holdings Limited (HKG:2285) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Chervon Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.6b in 2023, which would reflect a measurable 4.8% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to dive 40% to US$0.15 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.26 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
See our latest analysis for Chervon Holdings
The consensus price target fell 16% to US$3.93, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Chervon Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$5.97 and the most bearish at US$2.21 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2023 compared to the historical decline of 8.7% per annum over the past year. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 15% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Chervon Holdings to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Chervon Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Chervon Holdings analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.