Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE:UAA), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Under Armour's outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
View our latest analysis for Under Armour
What Is Under Armour Worth?
According to my valuation model, Under Armour seems to be fairly priced at around 9.9% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Under Armour today, you'd be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $8.82, then there's not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Under Armour's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Under Armour?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Under Armour, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -12%, which doesn't help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Currently, UAA appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on UAA for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there's less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven't considered today, which can help gel your views on UAA should the price fluctuate below its true value.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Under Armour, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
If you are no longer interested in Under Armour, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.