The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the new energy industry is a must-compete place for major countries. The current industrial policy balances the role of “structural adjustment” and “steady growth”. The industrial pattern shows the characteristics of overcapacity and full competition. The key to industrial development is exports. The driving capacity of the industry to the economy is higher than that of construction and machinery. The industrial cycle has not rebounded, and the industrial boom remains resilient in the short term, and 2024 H2 is expected to improve significantly.

Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:

1. Macroscopic background of the new energy industry: Energy is the food of industry and a weapon of conflict. The current global shift to new energy is beneficial to China. In the context of the major power game, the computing power revolution, and the internationalization of the renminbi, China will continue to stabilize its leading position in the new energy industry in the world.

2. New energy industrial policy and industrial pattern: The new energy industry policy balances “structural adjustment” and “steady growth”. Under the “horse racing” logic, the new energy industry is in a pattern of blooming everywhere and full competition. Currently, the new energy industry has some production capacity redundancy. In the future, “going overseas” will be an important development direction for new energy companies.

3. Looking at the new energy industry from the input-output table, we found:
Among macro-factors, exports have the greatest impact on the new energy industry, far higher than consumption and investment. Currently, 1 unit increase in exports can induce 0.13 units of new energy output;
The ability of the new energy industry to drive the economy ranks 3rd among all industries, higher than the construction industry and machinery, but due to the fact that volume actually drives the economy less, it is expected to replace some real estate and infrastructure in the future under the “restructuring” approach;
The upstream drive of the new energy industry is mainly on non-ferrous metals. The production capacity of 1 unit of electrical new products drives the demand for 0.55 units of non-ferrous products; at the same time, it mainly promotes production in the downstream construction, machinery and power industries.

4. Evaluation and forecast of the boom in the new energy industry:

From a cyclical perspective, prices in the new energy industry continue to bottom out, revenue is still not stabilizing, and inventories are still being removed. However, despite the lack of a steady rebound in the economy, cost advantages and high profit margins supported by policies continue to support the high profit growth rate.

Looking at the scoring system, the scoring system constructed through a total of 25 indicators in the two dimensions of volume and price is basically the same as the cyclical trend, and shows that it is difficult for the new energy boom to have a trend upward momentum in the short term.

In terms of business forecasting, catalyzed by the possible easing of Sino-US relations and the continued benefits of the Belt and Road, the new energy boom in 2024 is expected to stabilize in the first half of the year, rebound in the second half of the year, and remain relatively resilient throughout the year.

5. Risk warning: input and output structure changes, geopolitical risk disturbances.