The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But the long term shareholders of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 63% drop in the share price over that period. And over the last year the share price fell 30%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted.
Since Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has shed HK$1.5b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Check out our latest analysis for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s TSR of was a loss of 59% for the 3 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) shareholders are down 30% for the year, but the market itself is up 2.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.