Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG). The company's stock maintained its current share price over the past couple of month on the NYSE, with a relatively tight range of US$144 to US$158. However, does this price actually reflect the true value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at Packaging Corporation of America's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
See our latest analysis for Packaging Corporation of America
Is Packaging Corporation of America Still Cheap?
Packaging Corporation of America is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, I've used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock's cash flows. I find that Packaging Corporation of America's ratio of 18.03x is above its peer average of 14.81x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Packaging industry. Furthermore, Packaging Corporation of America's share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach levels around its industry peers, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it's there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.
What kind of growth will Packaging Corporation of America generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Packaging Corporation of America's earnings growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. This should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? PKG's optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe PKG should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on PKG for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for PKG, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Packaging Corporation of America has 2 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.