There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Xinyi Glass Holdings (HKG:868) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Xinyi Glass Holdings:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.097 = HK$3.7b ÷ (HK$52b - HK$13b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
So, Xinyi Glass Holdings has an ROCE of 9.7%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 9.2% average generated by the Building industry.
Check out our latest analysis for Xinyi Glass Holdings
In the above chart we have measured Xinyi Glass Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
The Trend Of ROCE
In terms of Xinyi Glass Holdings' historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 9.7% from 16% five years ago. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.
In Conclusion...
We're a bit apprehensive about Xinyi Glass Holdings because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. However the stock has delivered a 49% return to shareholders over the last five years, so investors might be expecting the trends to turn around. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
Xinyi Glass Holdings does have some risks though, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Xinyi Glass Holdings that you might be interested in.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.