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China Reinsurance (Group) (HKG:1508) Shareholders Have Endured a 63% Loss From Investing in the Stock Five Years Ago

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 14, 2023 18:03

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But unfortunately, some companies simply don't succeed. Zooming in on an example, the China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation (HKG:1508) share price dropped 71% in the last half decade. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. Furthermore, it's down 14% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 5.6% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for China Reinsurance (Group)

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Looking back five years, both China Reinsurance (Group)'s share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 5.9% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 22% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The low P/E ratio of 5.11 further reflects this reticence.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:1508 Earnings Per Share Growth November 14th 2023

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on China Reinsurance (Group)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Reinsurance (Group) the TSR over the last 5 years was -63%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in China Reinsurance (Group) had a tough year, with a total loss of 1.6% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 2.6%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 10% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that China Reinsurance (Group) is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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