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An Intrinsic Calculation For Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (HKG:1099) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued

Simply Wall St ·  11/15/2023 06:34

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Sinopharm Group is HK$26.57 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of HK$19.60 suggests Sinopharm Group is potentially 26% undervalued
  • Analyst price target for 1099 is CN¥27.67, which is 4.1% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (HKG:1099) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Sinopharm Group

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥6.61b CN¥7.65b CN¥6.89b CN¥6.44b CN¥6.19b CN¥6.06b CN¥6.01b CN¥6.00b CN¥6.04b CN¥6.10b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -9.99% Est @ -6.40% Est @ -3.89% Est @ -2.13% Est @ -0.90% Est @ -0.04% Est @ 0.56% Est @ 0.98%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2% CN¥6.1k CN¥6.4k CN¥5.3k CN¥4.5k CN¥4.0k CN¥3.6k CN¥3.3k CN¥3.0k CN¥2.7k CN¥2.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥41b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥6.1b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (9.2%– 2.0%) = CN¥86b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥86b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= CN¥36b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥77b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$19.6, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
SEHK:1099 Discounted Cash Flow November 14th 2023

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sinopharm Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.185. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Sinopharm Group

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
  • Dividend information for 1099.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Healthcare market.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
  • Is 1099 well equipped to handle threats?

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Sinopharm Group, we've put together three additional factors you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does 1099 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 1099's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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