In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HKG:1117) shareholders, since the share price is down 32% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 18%. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 6.0%. But this could be related to the soft market, which is down about 2.4% in the same period.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for China Modern Dairy Holdings isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
View our latest analysis for China Modern Dairy Holdings
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
China Modern Dairy Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 22% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 12% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
This free interactive report on China Modern Dairy Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, China Modern Dairy Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was -28%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 3.2% in the last year, China Modern Dairy Holdings shareholders lost 16% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 2% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Modern Dairy Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for China Modern Dairy Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course China Modern Dairy Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.