The analysts covering Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BRLT) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Brilliant Earth Group from its eight analysts is for revenues of US$483m in 2024 which, if met, would be a solid 9.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to surge 34% to US$0.12. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$552m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.
See our latest analysis for Brilliant Earth Group
The consensus price target fell 29% to US$4.54, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Brilliant Earth Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Brilliant Earth Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Brilliant Earth Group. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Brilliant Earth Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.