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中信建投:2024Q1将进入供给最过剩阶段 锂电行业有望迎来拐点

CITIC Construction Investment: 2024Q1 will enter the most oversupply stage, and the lithium battery industry is expected to reach an inflection point

Zhitong Finance ·  11/13/2023 10:10

Since 2024Q1 terminal demand is expected to drop by 20%-30% month-on-month, it is expected that all links will enter the stage of maximum oversupply at that time, corresponding to the lowest utilization rate and the bottom of unit profit.

The Zhitong Finance app learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that lithium batteries will recover in the spring. On the demand side, global tram sales volume is expected to be +25% year-on-year in 2024. After other fields are combined, the total global lithium battery demand is 1.5 TWh, +30% year-on-year. The supply and demand of lithium resources on the supply side is clearly relaxed (corresponding to the rapid decline in lithium prices). With the exception of the balance between supply and demand for diaphragms, there is oversupply in all other areas. Since 2024Q1 terminal demand is expected to drop by 20%-30% month-on-month, the bank expects all links to enter the stage of maximum oversupply at that time, corresponding to the lowest operating rate and bottom unit profit; starting in Q2, with demand rebounding month-on-month and improving supply and demand, the industry is expected to reach an inflection point.

CITIC Construction Investment's views are as follows:

Demand estimation: Global battery demand is expected to reach 1,519 GWh in 2024, +30% over the same period last year

In terms of tram sales volume, global NEV sales volume is expected to be 14.16/17.64 million units in 2023/24, up 33/ 25% year on year. Among them: 920/11.36 million vehicles in China, +34%/23%; the US, 1,600/2.2 million vehicles, +62%/38%; Europe, 310/3.7 million vehicles, +23%/19%, year-on-year. It reached 20.84 million vehicles in 2025, and 33% CARG in 2021-2025.

Electric vehicle battery demand is expected to be 1,036 GWh in 2024, +26% year-on-year. After adding battery demand for small power, consumer lithium batteries, power system energy storage, and communication energy storage, the total global lithium battery demand in 2024 is expected to be 1,519 GWh, +30% year-on-year, and 2.0/3.9 TWh in 2025/30, +28.5%/15% over the same period.

Supply estimates: New projects will slow down from the second half of 2023, and capacity release will slow down

The release of lithium battery supply-side production capacity remained at a high level in 2023 (mostly projects starting construction in early 2022-23). Beginning in the second half of this year, the movement of enterprises in various sectors to build new production capacity for new projects has clearly slowed down, so the overall pace of release of supply-side production capacity in 2024 will slow down.

Relationship between supply and demand: 2024Q1 will enter the most oversupply stage, and the industry is expected to reach an inflection point

In 2022, with the exception of tight supply and demand for lithium resources, lithium iron cathodes, VC, and diaphragms, all other links were in balance; supply and demand for lithium resources were clearly relaxed in 2023 (corresponding to the rapid decline in lithium prices), and all other links were oversupplied except for the balance between supply and demand for diaphragms. Looking ahead to 2024, since demand for 24Q1 terminals is expected to drop by 20%-30% month-on-month, all links will enter the stage of highest oversupply, corresponding to the lowest utilization rate and bottom unit profit; starting in Q2, with demand rebounding month-on-month and supply and demand, the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point.

Investment advice:1) Prioritize the link with an excellent pattern, profit can clearly see the bottom, focus on the battery link, and continue to benefit from profit distribution in the industrial chain. If you focus on materials, you can see the bottom of the structural components and electrolyte performance with a good pattern. 2) Be optimistic about the component elasticity brought about by the 23Q4 automobile terminal release, while also focusing on the expansion of the Huawei industry chain, the progress of the robot industry chain, the targeting of the 4680 industry chain, the new technology direction of composite foil/ferromanganese lithium emissions, and the level of prosperity in charging piles.

Risk warning:1) Downstream demand falls short of expectations: 2) Increased competition in the industry has led to a decline in the profitability of the industrial chain: 3) Recommended companies' key projects have not progressed as expected.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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