The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on CEVA, Inc. (NASDAQ:CEVA), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It looks like a pretty negative result overall with revenues of US$24m coming in 12% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.21 per share, 19% larger than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for CEVA
Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering CEVA provided consensus estimates of US$101.8m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 14% decline over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 54% to US$0.30. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$126.2m and losses of US$0.31 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
The consensus price target fell 8.0% to US$24.57, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CEVA at US$28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 16% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - CEVA is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for CEVA going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.