The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited's (SZSE:000625) strong earnings didn't offer any surprises. Investors are probably missing some underlying factors which are encouraging for the future of the company.
See our latest analysis for Chongqing Changan Automobile
A Closer Look At Chongqing Changan Automobile's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Chongqing Changan Automobile has an accrual ratio of -0.96 for the year to September 2023. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥17b, well over the CN¥10.8b it reported in profit. Chongqing Changan Automobile's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Surprisingly, given Chongqing Changan Automobile's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥461m in unusual items. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).
Our Take On Chongqing Changan Automobile's Profit Performance
In conclusion, Chongqing Changan Automobile's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Considering all the aforementioned, we'd venture that Chongqing Changan Automobile's profit result is a pretty good guide to its true profitability, albeit a bit on the conservative side. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Chongqing Changan Automobile at this point in time. For example, we've found that Chongqing Changan Automobile has 2 warning signs (1 is potentially serious!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.