To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. Although, when we looked at ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on ICF International is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.075 = US$127m ÷ (US$2.1b - US$369m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, ICF International has an ROCE of 7.5%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Professional Services industry average of 12%.
Check out our latest analysis for ICF International
In the above chart we have measured ICF International's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering ICF International here for free.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
In terms of ICF International's historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. The company has consistently earned 7.5% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 77% in that time. Given the company has increased the amount of capital employed, it appears the investments that have been made simply don't provide a high return on capital.
In Conclusion...
In summary, ICF International has simply been reinvesting capital and generating the same low rate of return as before. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 90% over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.
One more thing, we've spotted 2 warning signs facing ICF International that you might find interesting.
While ICF International may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.