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中金:预计2024年国内外家电有边际改善及预期差机会

CICC: It is expected that domestic and foreign home appliances will have marginal improvements and poor expectations in 2024

Zhitong Finance ·  11/09/2023 08:03

The bank determined that in 2024, there are opportunities for marginal improvement and poor expectations for domestic and foreign home appliances, including global development; end of inventory removal in European and American markets; increased market concentration; application of new technology, such as AI, smart homes, etc.; and rapid development of the HVAC industry.

The Zhitong Finance app learned that CICC released a research report saying that domestic home appliance-related consumption was sluggish in 2021 and 2022. Among them, inventory removal in the European and American markets began to be superimposed in 2022, leading to poor sector performance; currently, market confidence in the sector is still insufficient. The bank determined that in 2024, there are opportunities for marginal improvement and poor expectations for domestic and foreign home appliances, including global development; end of inventory removal in European and American markets; increased market concentration; application of new technology, such as AI, smart homes, etc.; and rapid development of the HVAC industry.

The main views of CICC are as follows:

Looking at global trends in the long term, looking at the end of the inventory removal cycle between Europe and the US in the short term:1) In 2000-2010, China became a global home appliance production center with its cost advantage. 2) In the 2020s, China's home appliance industry developed rapidly with global competitiveness and e-commerce advantages. The forms include independent brands, mergers and acquisitions, cross-border e-commerce, and global industrial chain layout. 3) Since 2022, the European and American home appliance markets have been in an inventory removal cycle. In mid-2023, the inventory level of the European and American home appliance industry will return to normal. The bank expects 2H23 to begin. The restorative increase in orders will lead to a continuous improvement in home appliance export data, benefiting some export-oriented enterprises. 4) Demand in overseas markets has been sluggish in recent years, but some manufacturers have maintained an upward trend in overseas brand share.

The rapid development of the HVAC industry:1) The driving force of the HVAC industry in 2000-2010s was mainly China's urbanization and industrialization. Since 2021, the return of manufacturing industry to the US and European heat pump subsidies has driven demand for HVAC in Europe and the US to exceed expectations, which has also led to high growth in China's heat pump exports. 2) China's HVAC faucet, or household appliance leader, has achieved domestic replacement for central air conditioning, and is committed to globalization and development in the field of heat pumps and heat management. 3) Core components upstream in the industrial chain continue to conquer, further enhancing the competitiveness of China's HVAC industry chain.

Demand is recovering in China, and companies with Alpha are expected to seize the opportunity:1) Under measures such as the relaxation of real estate policies and income tax cuts, the bank expects domestic demand to improve, but the improvements will not be enough to drive the overall high growth of most companies in the industry. The opportunities are mainly for companies with alpha and can increase their share. 2) The market concentration of kitchen appliances, civil electricians and lighting is not high; currently, it continues to rise. 3) The increase in demand for small household appliances depends on companies' ability to launch best-selling products in response to trends such as the single economy and the emotional economy, as well as the efficiency of online traffic conversion.

Risk:Market demand falls short of anticipated risk; market competition increases risk.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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