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The Five-year Loss for Monro (NASDAQ:MNRO) Shareholders Likely Driven by Its Shrinking Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 6, 2023 06:38

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. For example the Monro, Inc. (NASDAQ:MNRO) share price dropped 63% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 43% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 23% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

The recent uptick of 7.8% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Monro

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Looking back five years, both Monro's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 13% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 18% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:MNRO Earnings Per Share Growth November 6th 2023

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Monro's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Monro the TSR over the last 5 years was -60%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Monro had a tough year, with a total loss of 41% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Monro is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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