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Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 12% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Three-year Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 5, 2023 08:14

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For instance the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE:AGM) share price is 152% higher than it was three years ago. Most would be happy with that. It's even up 12% in the last week. But this might be partly because the broader market had a good week last week, gaining 5.9%.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Federal Agricultural Mortgage investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

See our latest analysis for Federal Agricultural Mortgage

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Federal Agricultural Mortgage was able to grow its EPS at 21% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 36% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:AGM Earnings Per Share Growth November 5th 2023

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Federal Agricultural Mortgage's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Federal Agricultural Mortgage, it has a TSR of 179% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Federal Agricultural Mortgage shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 46% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 22% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Federal Agricultural Mortgage better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Federal Agricultural Mortgage (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

Federal Agricultural Mortgage is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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