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中信建投:前三季度医药营收同比正增长 看好处方药、中医药等

CITIC Construction Investment: Positive year-on-year growth in pharmaceutical revenue in the first three quarters favors prescription drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.

Zhitong Finance ·  11/05/2023 08:54

The overall sector's revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 achieved positive year-on-year growth, and the growth rate declined in the third quarter. The growth rate slowed mainly due to increased compliance requirements, but the downturn was not overshadowed, and immediate demand and innovation drove the industry's Q3 revenue to continue to grow.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the overall sector revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 achieved positive year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of 2023, and the growth rate declined in the third quarter. The growth rate slowed mainly due to increased compliance requirements, but the shortcomings were not overshadowed. Immediate demand and innovation drove the industry's Q3 revenue to continue to grow. The segmentation of industry segments has intensified, and the sub-industries that have declined a lot are mainly related to the same period last year.

In 2023H1 and the first three quarters of 2023, the subsectors that achieved positive growth in revenue and net profit after deducting non-return from the parent, included medical equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, medical aesthetics, blood products, medical services, medical retail, general equipment, and chemicals. Fund holdings: Overall holdings increased in Q3, and track shareholding funds such as CXO and pharmaceuticals increased significantly.

The main views of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:

The short-term growth rate of the industry's Q3 revenue slowed, and profits declined due to rising costs and expenses.Overall sector revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 achieved positive year-on-year growth, and the growth rate declined in the third quarter, mainly affected by the overall environment. The cost-side growth trend in the first three quarters of 2022 and 2023 was generally consistent. The marginal growth trend in sales expenses was narrowing, and the growth rate of R&D expenses narrowed; net profit from net profit of net income after deducting non-return net profit in 2022 increased 5.63% and 16.12% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding year-on-year decrease in Q1-Q3 in 2023 was -21.33% and -17.48%.

The segmentation of industry segments has intensified, and the sub-industries that have declined a lot are mainly related to the same period last year.In 2023H1 and the first three quarters of 2023, the subsectors that achieved positive growth in revenue and net profit after deducting non-return from the parent, included medical equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, medical aesthetics, blood products, medical services, medical retail, general equipment, and chemicals.

Fund holdings: Overall holdings increased in Q3, focusing on the pharmaceutical and CXO industries.The public fund 23Q3 pharmaceutical holdings were 12.26%, up 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter, and increased their holdings. Excluding index funds and pharmaceutical funds, the shareholding ratio was 5.37%, up 0.71 percentage points from the previous quarter. Looking at it in the long run, the current fund holdings ratio is below the historical average. In 23Q3, track shareholding funds such as CXO and Pharmaceuticals increased significantly.

The situation in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, CXO, devices, services, and traditional Chinese medicine.① Pharmaceuticals: Although Q3 of 2023 was affected by short-term policy fluctuations, there was still moderate growth; excluding the influence of individual companies, the profit growth rate did not fluctuate much; representative companies continued to drive corporate transformation and upgrading through R&D. ② CXO: Downplay short-term fluctuations and be optimistic about long-term development. Affected by the high base in the same period last year and the slowdown in downstream demand growth, the sector growth rate slowed further compared to Q2, and orders from various companies were divided. Representative companies actively carry out detailed internal management and develop overseas customers. ③ Equipment: The base effect caused an overall decline, and all conventional varieties recovered. Q3 fluctuated in the short term, with equipment having the greatest impact. ④ Medical services: The sector's performance continues to recover. Q3 has a certain impact from a high base, and the growth rate has slowed down. ⑤ Traditional Chinese medicine: The overall growth rate is slowing down. Branded traditional Chinese medicine is mainly affected by basal effects, and in-hospital traditional Chinese medicine and formula granules are mainly affected by increased compliance requirements and collection.

What are we optimistic about in the future:

Prescription drugs: technology-driven, innovation and upgrading; policy bottoming out, traditional transformation.Technological innovation is driving changes in drug forms. Many ASCO companies have released the latest developments, and many domestically produced data on dual antibodies, ADC, immunotherapy, and cell therapy are worth paying attention to. Judging from the treatment field, the non-oncology sector is in full bloom, and weight loss has become an important growth pole. Policy signals have bottomed out, and the risk of collection has gradually been released. Innovative and transformed generic drug companies are moving into a positive valuation cycle.

Medical devices: Select structural opportunities around hospital recovery, policy clarification, and landscape changes.Medical equipment: New medical infrastructure remains booming, and we are optimistic about investment opportunities in endoscopy, rehabilitation, and online equipment. High-value consumables: Collecting promotes strategic adjustments of listed companies, and focuses on performance inflection points of the variety collected and implemented. IVD: Focus on the recovery of routine diagnosis and treatment and implementation of policies. Low-value consumables: Domestic beneficiary treatment volume recovery and product upgrades, and continuous acquisition of orders from major overseas beneficiaries.

Medical services: Optimistic about segments such as ophthalmology and serious medical care.Terminal demand will continue to recover in 2023, and ophthalmology services are highly flexible.

The traditional Chinese medicine industry chain: it is only small that it is showing sharp points.On the supply side: Special regulations on the registration and management of traditional Chinese medicines have been introduced to promote the long-term high-quality development of the industry; the collection of proprietary Chinese medicines is progressing steadily, and the overall progress is in line with expectations; adjustments to the basic drug catalogue are imminent, and traditional Chinese medicine varieties are expected to benefit; payment side: Policies continue to increase, and health insurance strongly supports the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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