Shareholders of Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIO) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$22.49 following its latest third-quarter results. Revenue hit US$7.4m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$1.64 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Agios Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Agios Pharmaceuticals
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Agios Pharmaceuticals' seven analysts is for revenues of US$121.6m in 2024. This would reflect a major 406% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 28% to US$5.02 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$103.3m and US$5.07 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.
The consensus price target held steady at US$37.83despite the upgrade to revenue forecasts and ongoing losses. The analysts seems to think the business is otherwise performing roughly in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Agios Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$46.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Agios Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 266% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 53% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So it looks like Agios Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$37.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Agios Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Agios Pharmaceuticals you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.