The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. Long term National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EYE) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 63% drop in the share price over that period. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 53% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 22% in the last three months.
While the last three years has been tough for National Vision Holdings shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Check out our latest analysis for National Vision Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, National Vision Holdings moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 7.8% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating National Vision Holdings further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
A Different Perspective
Investors in National Vision Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 53%, against a market gain of about 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand National Vision Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that National Vision Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.